Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-11-05 07:09Core Viewpoint - Citi expects Xiaomi Group-W (01810) to achieve a year-on-year revenue growth of 22% and a 60% increase in adjusted net profit in Q3, reaching RMB 112.9 billion and RMB 10 billion respectively, driven by robust electric vehicle sales [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Q3 total revenue is projected to be RMB 112.9 billion, with adjusted net profit at RMB 10 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22% and 60% respectively [1] - For Q4, total revenue and adjusted net profit are expected to grow by 15% and 16% year-on-year, attributed to a recovery in smartphone sales and continued growth in electric vehicle deliveries [1] Group 2: Electric Vehicle Segment - The approval of Xiaomi's second electric vehicle factory is anticipated to act as a catalyst for stock price revaluation [1] - Electric vehicle deliveries are expected to rise to 109,000 units, with an average price of approximately RMB 260,000, and the segment may have already achieved breakeven [1] Group 3: Smartphone and AIoT Business - Xiaomi's smartphone revenue may decline by 3% year-on-year due to decreased shipments in China and India [1] - The AIoT business is projected to slow down to a year-on-year growth of 5% due to reduced subsidies for trade-ins [1]