香港第一金：黄金日内V型反弹逾1%，多空激战4000美元关口！

Core Viewpoint - The gold price is experiencing a short-term decline due to various factors, but there are indications of potential recovery in the near future. Short-term Negative Factors - Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have cooled, with Powell hinting at a pause in actions, leading to a stronger dollar that suppresses gold prices [2] - Easing of risk aversion as signs of de-escalation in US-China trade tensions and geopolitical conflicts emerge [2] Technical Analysis - Gold price has broken below the short-term support formed by the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, with MACD indicators showing a bearish crossover and increasing bearish momentum [2] - KDJ indicator has entered the oversold zone (J value below 20), suggesting a potential technical rebound [2] - Daily RSI has dropped to 46.35, below the 50 midline, while weekly RSI remains in the overbought territory (around 53), indicating that short-term adjustment pressure is not fully released [2] Medium to Long-term Positive Outlook - Global central banks have continued to purchase gold, with a net purchase of 902 tons in the first three quarters of 2025, providing a bottom support for gold prices [4] - The trend of de-dollarization among various central banks is ongoing [4] - Institutions like UBS believe that after the current correction, gold prices may still return to the high of $4200 within the year [4] Daily Dynamics - On November 5, gold prices continued to decline in the morning but rebounded by over 1% in the afternoon, likely due to renewed safe-haven demand triggered by a drop in the stock market [4] Market Focus - Investors are closely monitoring upcoming US employment data for clues on the next steps in Federal Reserve policy [5] Short-term Strategy - If gold prices find support at the current level ($3966) with increased trading volume, a light long position may be considered, targeting around $4000, with a stop loss set below $3950 [6] - If gold effectively breaks below the $3950 support, further declines may occur, and short-term buying should be approached cautiously with stop losses in place [7] Medium to Long-term Strategy - The current decline is viewed more as a correction rather than a trend reversal, suggesting a "pyramid" buying strategy where the amount added decreases with each purchase as prices fall [8] - Initial positions may be established if gold retreats to the $3900-$3850 range, with better opportunities to add positions if it drops to around $3800, a key support level [9][10] Holding Mindset - Focus should be on long-term trends such as global central bank gold purchases and US debt issues, rather than short-term fluctuations [11]