沪铜弱势运行 现货升水有所回暖【11月5日SHFE市场收盘评论】

Core Viewpoint - Recent concerns over overseas liquidity have led to a decline in copper prices, with a closing drop of 0.88%. The market is closely monitoring supply and demand dynamics moving forward [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Copper prices opened lower and experienced a slight narrowing of the decline during the day, closing down 0.88% [1] - The rebound of the US dollar and the overall decline in commodity prices in the US market have contributed to the downward shift in copper prices [1] - Despite an increase in production in the first nine months of the year, Codelco has revised its 2025 production forecast down from 1.34-1.37 million tons to 1.31-1.34 million tons [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand - Concerns about tight supply persist as some overseas mining companies have lowered their production and sales forecasts [1] - Domestic copper concentrate processing fees are hovering around -40 USD, indicating a challenging environment for producers [1] - The social inventory of refined copper in China continues to accumulate, suggesting limited purchasing willingness from downstream sectors due to high prices [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Jinrui Futures indicates that the market logic may remain macro-driven, with less optimistic expectations for US-China negotiations and differing views on the Federal Reserve's future policy path, leading to a stronger dollar and a pullback in copper prices [1] - The macroeconomic situation has not fully reversed, and the tight supply backdrop remains unchanged, suggesting that copper prices may maintain high volatility in the short term [1]