货币市场紧张或持续至11月 美联储缩表政策遭市场“逼宫”

Core Viewpoint - The tightening conditions in the money market may persist until November, pressuring the Federal Reserve to act before halting balance sheet reduction next month [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The overnight secured financing rate (SOFR) surged by 18 basis points last Friday, marking the largest single-day fluctuation since the Fed's rate hike cycle began in March 2020 [1] - Despite a decrease in SOFR on Monday, it remains above the Fed's key policy benchmark rates, including the federal funds rate [1][6] - Other short-term rates in the interbank repo market continue to trade above the Fed's managed rates [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve announced it will stop reducing its holdings of U.S. Treasury securities by December, ending a three-year quantitative tightening effort due to increasing financing pressures [1][5] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that at some point, the Fed will gradually increase reserve levels, but did not specify a timeline [5] - Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan stated that if repo rates remain high, the Fed will need to purchase assets, expressing disappointment over the three-party repo rates exceeding the Fed's standing repo facility rate [5] Group 3: Financial Market Dynamics - The spread between SOFR and the interest on reserve balances (IORB) reached 32 basis points last Friday, the largest since 2020, before falling to 4.13% on Monday [6] - The effective federal funds rate was lowered by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4% on October 29 [6] - Joseph Abate from SMBC Nikko Securities suggested that market pressures may be more significant than reported rates indicate, advocating for more aggressive Fed actions, including purchasing Treasury bills [9]