美元指数大涨，黄金驻足不前

Group 1 - The core reason for the rise in the US dollar index is attributed to the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, with market expectations for a December rate cut dropping from 95% to 67% after Powell's comments, leading to a surge in the 10-year Treasury yield from 3.8% to 4.11% [1] - The ongoing "cash crunch" in the US money market, exacerbated by the government shutdown, has led to a significant increase in secured overnight financing rates (SOFR), which rose by 18 basis points, the largest single-day increase since March 2020, enhancing the attractiveness of the dollar [1] - Weakness in non-US currencies, particularly the Japanese yen and British pound, along with a decline in the euro, has contributed to the strengthening of the dollar index [1] Group 2 - The rise in the US dollar index has limited the upward movement of gold prices, resulting in a continued correction in the gold market [2] - The Shanghai gold price has decreased by 0.77%, closing at 912.26 yuan per gram [4] Group 3 - The US economy and job market are facing challenges from the government shutdown and trade tensions, while the Federal Reserve's hawkish signals have increased short-term policy uncertainty [6] - Geopolitical risks and financial institution failures are prompting more central banks to increase gold holdings, suggesting a potential long-term bullish trend for precious metals similar to the 1970s [6] - Short-term fluctuations in international gold prices are expected, with a potential buying opportunity if prices drop below $3,900 (900 yuan), while the market is likely to experience a consolidation phase [6]