美联储独立性遭特朗普“组合拳”，市场为何不买账？

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is under significant pressure from President Trump, who has made threats against its leadership and called for interest rate cuts to alleviate government debt costs, raising concerns about the independence of the central bank [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Perspectives - Economists are divided on the issue of the Federal Reserve's independence, with some supporting the view that its past decisions indicate an overreach of independence that should be constrained [2]. - John Cochrane argues that if the Federal Reserve is to operate independently, it must have a more limited mission and a stronger accountability mechanism [2]. - In contrast, Larry Summers contends that complaints about the Federal Reserve's overreach are not among the top issues facing the U.S., suggesting that threats from the Trump administration could be more damaging [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Despite concerns from economists, financial markets have remained calm, with expectations for the federal funds rate showing a significant decline due to Trump's rhetoric during his first term [3][6]. - Research indicates that the market perceives Trump's threats as potentially leading to interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, although the long-term influence of presidential rhetoric is limited [3][6]. Group 3: Legal and Institutional Concerns - The U.S. Supreme Court has indicated that it will treat the Federal Reserve differently from other government agencies, which has provided some reassurance to markets and economists [7]. - However, legal experts express concern that the Court's reasoning lacks a solid foundation, suggesting that the Federal Reserve's security may not be as robust as previously thought [7]. Group 4: Public Perception - There is growing partisanship in public attitudes towards the Federal Reserve, with Trump's attacks undermining its legitimacy among Republicans [8]. - Scholars note that the legitimacy of the Federal Reserve, which is crucial for its acceptance in a democratic society, is increasingly being questioned due to these partisan divides [8].