每日期货全景复盘11.05：红枣期货跌跌不休，触及五个月低点！

Market Overview - The futures market shows a bearish sentiment with 21 contracts rising and 57 contracts falling, indicating a concentration of trading activity in declining varieties [2] - The main contracts experiencing significant price increases include the shipping index (European line) at 2512 (+4.08%) and eggs at 2512 (+1.93%) [4] - Conversely, the main contracts with notable declines include polysilicon at 2601 (-2.44%) and fiberboard at 2512 (-1.84%), likely influenced by increased bearish forces or negative fundamentals [6] Capital Flow - The most significant capital inflows were observed in the CSI 1000 at 2512 (2.188 billion), CSI 500 at 2512 (553 million), and SSE 50 at 2512 (403 million), indicating strong interest from major funds [8] - The largest capital outflows were seen in Shanghai gold at 2512 (-1.08 billion), Shanghai copper at 2512 (-918 million), and Shanghai aluminum at 2512 (-682 million), suggesting a clear withdrawal of funds from these contracts [8] Position Changes - Notable increases in positions were recorded for japonica rice at 2602 (+24.57%) and soybean at 2601 (+12.36%), indicating new funds entering the market and heightened trading activity [11] - Significant decreases in positions were noted for live pigs at 2601 (-6.78%) and apples at 2601 (-6.84%), suggesting potential withdrawals of major funds and warranting attention for future performance [11] Key Events - The U.S. federal government has entered its 36th day of shutdown, marking the longest shutdown in history, which may have implications for market stability and investor sentiment [12] - The State Council's Tariff Policy Committee announced adjustments to tariffs on imports from the U.S., continuing to suspend the 24% tariff while retaining a 10% tariff, which could affect trade dynamics [13] Industry Insights - Polysilicon inventory has decreased to 256,000 tons, down 10,600 tons from the previous week, indicating a downward trend in overall inventory levels as orders continue to be fulfilled [15] - In the pork industry, large-scale enterprises are accelerating the slaughter of pigs, with November's planned slaughter volume expected to decrease by 2.54% compared to October, reflecting market pressures and changing supply dynamics [16] - The Anhui Province's gold industry development plan aims to consolidate resources in key mining areas and promote the establishment of competitive enterprises, which may enhance operational efficiency and market competitiveness [17] Future Focus - The Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) forecasts a 10% increase in palm oil production in 2025, reaching approximately 56 million tons, driven by favorable weather and strong prices [19] - The market is advised to monitor the ongoing dynamics in the polysilicon sector, where supply-demand imbalances and policy expectations may influence future price movements [23][24]