每日投行/机构观点梳理（2025-11-05）

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The gold market is expected to consolidate in a lower trading range of $3,800 to $4,050 per ounce due to concerns over the uncertain outlook for Federal Reserve rate cuts and buying demand [1] - After this consolidation phase, the average gold price may reach above $4,400 per ounce in the first half of 2026 [1] Group 2: Oil Market Outlook - Oil prices are declining due to expectations of oversupply, particularly in the first quarter of 2026 when demand typically weakens [2] - The oil market may face a significant oversupply situation next year unless there are supply disruptions caused by sanctions [2] Group 3: Euro and Pound Analysis - The euro is expected to rebound supported by a strong economic fundamental in the Eurozone, with forecasts suggesting EUR/USD could rise to 1.20 in Q4 2023 and 1.26 by Q3 2026 [3] - The British pound may weaken further if the Bank of England cuts rates in December, with expectations for EUR/GBP to rise to 0.89 in Q1 2026 and 0.90 in Q2 2026 [4] Group 4: Australian Economic Outlook - The Reserve Bank of Australia has maintained its benchmark interest rate, indicating that the easing cycle may have ended, with inflation risks remaining high [5] - The cash rate is likely to stay at 3.6% as inflation levels pose challenges to previous narratives of slowing inflation [5] Group 5: Domestic Market Insights - The resumption of government bond trading in October is not expected to affect the anticipated reserve requirement ratio cut in Q4 [6] - The current environment supports the resumption of bond trading, which may enhance long-term liquidity for banks [6] Group 6: Dollar Index and Economic Projections - The dollar index has surpassed 100, but the current movement is viewed as a rebound rather than the start of a new appreciation cycle [7] - The market is pricing in a greater likelihood of no rate cuts in December, which could lead to significant adjustments in future policy expectations [7] Group 7: Gold Tax Policy Impact - The new gold tax policy is expected to influence the behavior of three types of market participants, encouraging on-exchange trading and potentially increasing costs for downstream businesses [8] - The policy clarifies the distinction between investment and non-investment uses of gold, impacting how transactions are reported [8] Group 8: Copper Market Dynamics - A downward trend in supply is emerging, with major copper mining companies expected to see a nearly 5% year-on-year decline in production by Q3 2025 [9] - The combination of raw material shortages and stable demand may lead to a significant supply gap in the global refined copper market, with LME copper prices projected to exceed $10,000 per ton [9]