周四破局时刻？美国政府关门破纪录，市场撑不住了

Core Insights - The U.S. government shutdown is pushing financial markets towards a dangerous edge, with signs of potential progress in negotiations between the two parties in Congress [1][3] - The shutdown has reached its 36th day, breaking the previous record and causing significant economic impacts, including a projected GDP decline of 1-2 percentage points for Q4 [2][3] Market Impact - The shutdown has led to a liquidity crisis comparable to multiple interest rate hikes, with major sell-offs in risk assets, particularly in the tech and semiconductor sectors [1][4] - The Treasury's General Account (TGA) balance has surged from approximately $300 billion to over $1 trillion, indicating a withdrawal of over $700 billion from the market [4] Political Developments - Senate Majority Leader John Thune proposed a potential solution that combines a short-term funding bill with a vote on extending ACA subsidies, seen as a key step to break the deadlock [3][5] - Some Republican senators express optimism about reaching an agreement this week, particularly after local elections, which may pressure Democrats to soften their stance [6][5] Internal Party Dynamics - There are visible divisions within the Democratic Party regarding the approach to the shutdown, with moderate members considering a compromise that would reopen the government in exchange for future votes on ACA subsidies [7][8] - Progressive Democrats are opposed to this compromise, viewing it as a betrayal of working families, highlighting the internal conflict that could hinder negotiations [8]