美国政府关门“破纪录”，市场已然撑不住，周四或是破局时刻？

Group 1 - The prolonged government shutdown has significantly impacted the U.S. financial markets, marking a historical record of 35 days, leading to a shift in market sentiment from cautiousness to panic [1][3][10] - The Nasdaq index fell over 3.2% and the S&P 500 dropped by 2.7%, with technology stocks, particularly semiconductor companies, suffering the most [6][8] - The shutdown has caused a systemic functional halt, affecting IPO approvals, economic data releases, and regulatory processes, which has left investors and the Federal Reserve in a state of uncertainty [8][10] Group 2 - The Treasury's actions to withdraw liquidity from the market, increasing the TGA account balance from $300 billion to over $1 trillion, have led to a significant reduction in available market funds [10][12] - This liquidity withdrawal has had effects similar to an interest rate hike, causing interbank borrowing costs to spike, indicating a severe liquidity crunch in the banking system [12][14] - The current situation mirrors past liquidity crises, with the potential for a self-reinforcing cycle of panic and tightening liquidity [15][27] Group 3 - There are signs of potential compromise between the two political parties, with a proposed plan to reopen the government while continuing budget negotiations [5][19] - The political landscape remains fraught with internal divisions within both parties, complicating the negotiation process and raising doubts about the feasibility of reaching an agreement [22][25] - The ongoing political turmoil has led to a loss of confidence among global investors in U.S. assets, undermining the perception of U.S. Treasury securities as a safe haven [10][27][29]