美股“失落阵营”消费股迎财报“大考” 美国家庭“压力山大”是病根

Core Insights - The consumer sector is lagging behind the overall stock market performance, with significant declines in major consumer companies' stock prices, highlighting the challenges faced by American households [1][2][3] Group 1: Consumer Sector Performance - Major consumer companies like Lululemon Athletica, Chipotle, and Deckers Outdoor have seen stock declines exceeding 45% this year [1] - Essential consumer goods companies such as Kraft Heinz, Hormel Foods, and Target have also experienced stock declines of at least 27% [1] - Excluding Amazon and Tesla from the S&P 500 consumer discretionary index shows that the index has remained flat in 2025, indicating the struggles of non-essential consumer companies [1] Group 2: Economic Challenges - The poor performance of consumer stocks reflects multiple pressures on American households, including layoffs, high tariffs on goods, and elevated mortgage rates affecting the real estate market [2] - Upcoming earnings reports from companies like McDonald's, DoorDash, and Wynn Resorts are anticipated to provide insights into the consumer sector's current dynamics [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The ongoing AI investment trend is overshadowing the difficulties faced by consumer stocks, with the S&P 500 index nearing historical highs and a 15% increase this year [3] - The market is exhibiting a "barbell" structure, where a few AI-related companies perform well while most stocks are dragged down by labor market concerns and household spending pressures [3][4] - Only 5% of stocks in the S&P 500 consumer staples sector have outperformed the market in the past six months, marking one of the lowest ratios in 50 years [4] Group 4: Employment and Layoffs - The focus has shifted from official labor market data to corporate layoff announcements due to the U.S. government shutdown, with significant layoffs announced by companies like UPS and Amazon [5][6] - Some analysts suggest that the current wave of layoffs could be beneficial for the stock market, potentially leading to a "no-employment boom" scenario that may prompt the Federal Reserve to adopt a more accommodative policy [6]