“日光盘”减少、二手房降温，上海楼市“银十”成色不足

Core Insights - The Shanghai real estate market in October showed a significant decline in transaction volume compared to September, with new residential sales dropping by 27% month-on-month to 398,000 square meters [1] - The supply of new homes decreased by 33% in October, with only 33 new projects launched, indicating a low willingness among developers to release new inventory [2] - The luxury housing market is experiencing a return to rationality, with a slight decrease in average transaction prices, which fell by 6.4% to 83,955 yuan per square meter [2] New Housing Market - In October, the new housing market in Shanghai saw a total supply of 423,000 square meters, with only 14 out of 33 projects offering more than 100 units, reflecting developers' reluctance to push new inventory [2] - High-end projects remain the focus, with nine projects priced above 100,000 yuan per square meter, including the successful launch of Vanke's high-end project in Huangpu District, which achieved sales exceeding the total for the same price segment in 2024 [2] - The overall transaction volume for new homes was lower than expected, with the last week of October failing to show a significant uptick in sales [1][2] Second-Hand Housing Market - The second-hand housing market in Shanghai also experienced a downturn, with a total of 18,483 transactions in October, a decrease of 9.83% from September and a 24.17% drop year-on-year [4] - The market showed signs of cooling, with only three days in October recording over 1,000 transactions, and the average daily sales during the first half of the month being significantly low due to the holiday impact [4] - The trend of "price for volume" is evident, with sellers reducing prices to stimulate sales, as illustrated by a buyer's experience of multiple price cuts on a property [3][4] Market Performance Comparison - Overall, the performance of the Shanghai real estate market in October ("Silver October") was weaker than in September ("Golden September"), with total transactions for both new and second-hand homes significantly lower [4] - In September, total housing transactions reached 2.07 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 8% and a year-on-year increase of 24%, contrasting sharply with October's figures [4][5]