美国正谋划成立一个“俱乐部”

Core Points - The U.S. is forming a "Critical Minerals Trading Club" with multiple countries to restructure supply chains and reduce dependence on foreign sources, aiming for dominance in AI and green industries [1][2][3] - The club includes countries like Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Australia, and Thailand, and is seen as a response to the strategic importance of energy security [2][3] - The U.S. and EU have been working on a trade agreement focused on critical minerals to shift clean energy supply chains away from China, which currently dominates the rare earth market [3][10] Group 1: Formation and Objectives of the Trading Club - The "Critical Minerals Trading Club" aims to be a core platform for refining and processing critical minerals among Western nations, with the ultimate goal of leading the AI competition [2] - The club's formation reflects a broader strategy among Western nations to fill gaps in internal mineral trade and promote industry expansion [2][8] - The U.S. has previously initiated a partnership with over ten countries to manage assets exceeding $30 trillion for mineral trade projects [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Investment Trends - The trade volume of rare earths between the U.S. and Australia is projected to grow by 67% year-on-year in 2024, while the EU's internal trade in semi-finished rare earth products is expected to increase by 52% [6] - The current surge in rare earth stocks in the U.S. is attributed to government support for domestic clean energy projects, with some companies seeing stock price increases of over 300% [7][8] - The market is experiencing a "rare earth boom," drawing comparisons to historical gold and oil rushes, indicating a significant growth potential in the energy minerals sector [6] Group 3: Challenges and Geopolitical Implications - The restructuring of supply chains faces challenges such as technological reliance, cost issues, and differing interests among alliance members [1][10] - The U.S. aims to establish a supply chain independent of China, which currently holds over 90% of global rare earth processing capacity [3][10] - There are concerns about the sustainability of the current market dynamics, with warnings about potential over-investment and the risks of speculative capital inflows [9][10]