黄力晨：支撑与压制共存 黄金维持震荡调整

Core Viewpoint - Despite recent weak performance, gold remains supported by factors such as the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, international geopolitical tensions, and uncertainties in Federal Reserve monetary policy, leading to a range-bound adjustment in gold prices [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Gold prices are currently experiencing a range-bound adjustment, with resistance levels at $4020 and $4030, and support levels at $3960 and $3915 [1]. - The recent U.S. government shutdown has reached a historical record duration, raising concerns about a prolonged closure, which attracts safe-haven investments into gold [2]. - The U.S.-China trade negotiations have reached a basic consensus, including tariff reductions and extensions of tariff exemptions, which has contributed to a stronger U.S. dollar, putting pressure on gold prices [2]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold has maintained a range-bound adjustment after stabilizing last week, with key resistance at $3987 and $4000, and support at $3930 and $3900 [4]. - Technical indicators show that while the bearish sentiment remains dominant, the downward pressure on gold prices is easing, as indicated by slight upward movements in the 5-day moving average and other indicators [4]. - The market sentiment is mixed, with safe-haven support from geopolitical tensions and the U.S. government shutdown, countered by the strengthening dollar due to cautious Federal Reserve stances and improved U.S.-China trade relations [4].