中美贸易中，美国已丧失主动权？未来中美摊牌的概率有多大？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the U.S. imposing a 100% tariff on Chinese goods, highlighting the potential long-term consequences for U.S.-China relations and the U.S. economy, suggesting that the U.S. may struggle to maintain its position as a global competitor against China [2][3]. Group 1: Trade Relations and Tariffs - The U.S. has announced a 100% tariff on Chinese goods, indicating a strategy of prolonged trade conflict, but China has effectively countered this move with export controls on critical materials [3][5]. - Key materials such as rare earth elements and lithium batteries are essential for U.S. high-tech industries, electric vehicles, and military production, demonstrating the deep dependency of the U.S. on Chinese manufacturing [5][7]. - Despite high tariffs, the U.S. continues to import approximately $1 billion worth of goods from China daily, underscoring the difficulty of decoupling from Chinese manufacturing [5][7]. Group 2: Economic and Political Stability - The U.S. manufacturing sector faces significant challenges in rebuilding due to China's established and efficient supply chain, making it difficult for the U.S. to catch up [9]. - The U.S. government has experienced a shutdown, the longest in seven years, due to political disagreements, affecting federal employees and military personnel, which further complicates the U.S.'s ability to engage in international trade negotiations [10][12]. - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $38 trillion, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 124%, indicating a precarious fiscal situation that hampers its global standing [12][13]. Group 3: Comparative Analysis of U.S. and China - In contrast to the U.S., China maintains political stability, steady economic growth, a complete industrial chain, and ample foreign exchange reserves, positioning itself favorably in the global landscape [15][17]. - The article suggests that as the U.S. declines, the likelihood of a direct confrontation with China decreases, as military actions are driven by cost-benefit analyses, which the current U.S. fiscal situation cannot support [15][17]. - China's strategy focuses on internal development and strengthening its global influence, allowing it to outlast U.S. challenges without direct confrontation [17].