Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-11-05 14:27Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor equipment market in China is experiencing a significant shift, with Japanese companies like Nikon and Canon capitalizing on the restrictions faced by ASML, leading to a dramatic increase in their sales in the Chinese market [2][4][16]. Group 1: ASML's Market Position - In 2023, ASML delivered 225 lithography machines to China, generating over €6.4 billion, making China its second-largest market, accounting for 29% of total sales [4]. - By Q3 2023, Chinese orders constituted 46% of ASML's global revenue, driven by the rapid growth of China's chip industry [4]. - Following U.S. pressure, ASML faced export restrictions starting January 2024, predicting a 10% to 15% impact on sales in China for that year [6][8]. Group 2: Japanese Competitors' Strategy - Nikon and Canon have shifted their focus to mature technologies, such as DUV and i-line, which are suitable for the majority of Chinese chip manufacturers producing 28nm and above chips [8][10]. - Nikon launched a new i-line lithography machine in 2024, its first in 25 years, priced 20% to 30% lower than Canon's offerings, aiming to penetrate the Chinese market [12]. - Canon expanded its service network in China, increasing technical staff by 50% to support its lithography equipment [14]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Trends - In Q1 2024, Japan's semiconductor equipment exports to China surged to ¥521.2 billion, a staggering 82% increase year-on-year, marking the highest level since 2007 [16]. - By 2024, Japan's semiconductor equipment exports to China reached $9.63 billion, a 28.23% increase, with Japan becoming the largest supplier to China [16][20]. - The overall semiconductor equipment market is projected to grow by 25.4% in 2024, with China's semiconductor manufacturing equipment market expected to reach $23.89 billion [20][22]. Group 4: Future Outlook - ASML has lowered its sales target for 2025 from €3-4 billion to €3-3.5 billion due to a weakening Chinese market [22]. - Nikon and Canon have also adjusted their forecasts, with Nikon expecting a decline in net profit by 22% to ¥35 billion [18][24]. - The Chinese market is anticipated to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 14.63% from 2025 to 2035, indicating a long-term shift in the semiconductor equipment landscape [22].