美债结构继续“短端化” 财政部暂不增发长期国债 依赖国库券填补赤字

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury will not increase the issuance of medium to long-term government bonds in the coming quarters, relying instead on short-term Treasury bills to fill the federal budget deficit, indicating a shift towards a shorter debt structure [1][2] - The Treasury's refinancing issuance scale remains consistent at $125 billion, covering 3-year, 10-year, and 30-year bonds, unchanged since May of last year, with expectations that any increase in long-term bond issuance may not occur until mid-2026 or later [2][3] - The Federal Reserve is expected to become a new source of demand for U.S. Treasury bonds, as it plans to reinvest funds from maturing mortgage-backed securities into short-term Treasury bills starting December 1 [2] Group 2 - The Treasury plans to maintain the issuance scale of benchmark Treasury bills until the end of November, with a slight reduction in short-term bond auctions in December, followed by an expected increase in January to address rising fiscal expenditures [3] - If the Treasury continues to keep long-term bond issuance unchanged while increasing the proportion of short-term debt, the share of Treasury bills in total outstanding debt is projected to exceed 26% by the end of 2027, significantly above the recommended long-term target of around 20% [3] - Analysts warn that the reliance on short-term financing may increase refinancing risks for the U.S. government, especially as long-term bonds issued during the pandemic begin to mature in the coming years [3]