特朗普派发“定心丸”：美股将再创新高，必须尽快重启政府！

Core Viewpoint - President Trump believes that the stock market will continue to reach "historical highs," attributing this to strong corporate earnings and investor enthusiasm for AI, despite concerns over government shutdowns and global trade tensions [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Market Performance - The S&P 500 index has risen by 19.6% over the past 12 months, driven by robust corporate earnings and a strong interest in AI [1]. - The U.S. stock market has shown resilience, ignoring fears of renewed global trade tensions and market volatility [1]. - Compared to global markets, the U.S. stock market's performance has been relatively modest, with the South Korean KOSPI rising 66% and the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index increasing by 28% over the past year [3]. Group 2: Economic Policies and Market Reactions - Trump's administration has been credited with fulfilling many investor expectations, contributing to the ongoing bull market, which is characterized as an "AI bull market" [5]. - The S&P 500 index's performance since Trump's election ranks as the eighth best for a president's first term since World War II [2]. - The market's recovery from a 19% drop following the introduction of tariffs in April indicates that the final tariff measures were less severe than initially feared [2]. Group 3: Future Market Outlook - Analysts express caution regarding potential market corrections, with expectations of a 10% to 15% pullback within the next 12 months [6]. - Goldman Sachs' CEO anticipates a possible 10% to 20% decline in the stock market over the next 1 to 2 years due to the rapid market gains [6]. - The current market's high position raises concerns about its vulnerability to negative surprises, as it has not experienced a correction since April [6].