美联储，降息生变！特朗普：美股将再创新高！

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government shutdown has led to the suspension of several key economic statistics, making unofficial data, such as the ADP employment report, crucial for investors to gauge the state of the U.S. economy [1] Employment Data - The ADP report indicates that private sector employment grew by 42,000 jobs in October, surpassing the Dow Jones estimate of 22,000 jobs [1] - The September employment data was revised from a loss of 29,000 jobs to a loss of only 3,000 jobs [1] - Employment increased in the trade, transportation, and utilities sector by 47,000 jobs, while education and health services added 26,000 jobs, and financial activities saw an increase of 11,000 jobs [1][2] - The information services sector experienced a decline of 17,000 jobs, with other sectors like professional and business services and other services also seeing reductions [1][2] - Manufacturing jobs decreased by 3,000 in October, indicating limited success in bringing manufacturing jobs back to the U.S. [1] Wage Growth - Despite a slowdown in job growth, wages continue to rise, with wages for current employees increasing by 4.5% year-over-year, remaining stable from September, while job switchers saw a wage increase of 6.7% [2] Employment Trends - On average, employment grew by about 60,000 jobs per month in the first half of the year, but this figure has significantly declined in the second half [3] - The ADP employment data is considered a leading indicator for the non-farm payroll data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics [3] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve officials express concern over employment data, indicating a shift in focus from inflation rates to the labor market [4] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is estimated at 70.1%, with a 29.9% chance of maintaining current rates [4] - There is significant internal disagreement within the Federal Reserve regarding the continuation of rate cuts, with some members advocating for a more aggressive approach [4][5]