McDonald’s Pops Despite Q3 Earnings Miss

Core Insights - McDonald's Corporation reported third-quarter earnings that fell short of expectations, with adjusted earnings per share of $3.22 against a consensus of $3.36, missing by 4.2% [1][5] - Revenue for the quarter was $7.078 billion, below the expected $7.166 billion, representing a 1.2% miss [1][5] - The stock opened lower as investors reacted to signs of slowing momentum after a stronger first half of 2025 [1] Comparable Sales Performance - The primary concern is the slowdown in comparable-store sales growth, with declines noted in the U.S. and several international markets [2] - McDonald's attributed some of the weakness to consumer spending pressures, particularly affecting lower-income customers [2] - Comparable sales are critical indicators of business health for mature restaurant operators, and their contraction signals demand weakness that cannot be offset by restructuring or cost cuts [2] Operating Margins and Valuation - Operating margins remained stable, indicating the company's pricing power and operational efficiency [3] - However, margin stability cannot compensate for top-line deceleration, especially given the stock's current valuation at 25.6 times trailing earnings [3] - McDonald's trades at a premium multiple relative to its growth rate, with trailing twelve-month revenue growth of 5.4% and quarterly earnings growth of 12.1% [4] Market Outlook - The forward P/E ratio of 22.6 suggests limited room for disappointment, and the recent earnings miss indicates potential near-term headwinds as consumer spending remains uneven [4] - The analyst consensus target of $330.10 implies a 10% upside from current levels, contingent on stabilization in comparable sales and sustained profitability [4]