美债年底或迎来走强？分析：与降息无关，而是“避险情绪回潮”

Core Insights - The U.S. Treasury market is expected to show positive trends by the end of the year, driven by historical seasonal patterns rather than Federal Reserve policy expectations [1] - The probability of a rate cut in December has decreased significantly from approximately 90% to 72% following comments from Fed Chair Powell [1] - Historical data indicates that U.S. Treasury prices peak in late autumn and reach their lowest point in spring, which may mitigate investor disappointment regarding Fed policy [1][2] Seasonal Patterns - The seasonal characteristics of the U.S. Treasury market originated in the early 1970s when the Treasury began selling bonds through public auctions [2] - A study published in 2015 noted that prior to the market pricing mechanism, Treasury yields showed little seasonal variation, but the introduction of a predictable auction schedule established a stable seasonal pattern [2] - December's average return for U.S. Treasuries is generally modest, but when combined with November's returns, it surpasses the performance of any other two-month combination throughout the year [2] Risk Aversion Mechanism - Researchers analyzed various hypotheses to explain the seasonal patterns in Treasury yields, ultimately identifying seasonal changes in investor risk aversion as the primary driver [3] - The study concluded that as investor sentiment declines in the autumn, risk aversion increases, leading to higher Treasury prices and thus higher actual yields during this period [4] - Conversely, as investor sentiment improves in the spring, risk aversion decreases, resulting in lower Treasury prices and lower actual yields [4]