信心指数持平50.3 全年5%增速有望实现

Economic Outlook - The necessity for domestic demand to take over from external demand is increasing as external demand's contribution to economic growth may weaken [1] - The central economic work conference at the end of the year is expected to continue advocating for a "more proactive fiscal policy" and "moderately loose monetary policy" [1] - Economists predict that China's economy will achieve a growth target of around 5% for the year, despite a complex external environment [2][3] Confidence Index - The "Chief Economist Confidence Index" for November 2025 is reported at 50.3, remaining stable from the previous month [2] - The index indicates a balanced outlook among economists regarding economic performance in the coming months [2] Inflation Predictions - The average forecast for October's Consumer Price Index (CPI) is -0.1%, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to be -2.2% [4] - CPI is anticipated to show a seasonal increase in the fourth quarter, while PPI's recovery will depend on policy support or improvements in overseas demand [5] Retail and Industrial Growth - The predicted growth rate for social retail sales in October is 2.7%, lower than the previous month's 3% [6] - Industrial value-added growth for October is forecasted at 5.7%, indicating a slight decline but still maintaining a strong performance [7] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth is expected to be -0.8% for September, reflecting a slight decrease from the previous month [8] - Real estate development investment is projected to decline by 14% in October, indicating a worsening trend in the sector [9] Trade and Foreign Exchange - The trade surplus for October is predicted to be $94.26 billion, slightly higher than the previous month's figure [10] - The average forecast for the RMB to USD exchange rate by the end of November is 7.1, indicating stability in the currency [16] Monetary Policy and Financing - New loans for October are expected to decrease to 454.91 billion yuan, down from 1.29 trillion yuan in the previous month [11] - The total social financing volume for October is projected to be 1.3 trillion yuan, lower than the previous month's figure [13] Policy Focus - Macro policies are expected to strengthen coordination between fiscal and monetary measures, with an emphasis on infrastructure and social welfare investments [18] - The focus on "investment in people" aims to enhance human capital and stimulate domestic consumption, which is crucial for sustainable economic growth [19][20]