金价冲突破1200元就崩盘！暴涨急跌后，普通人还能抓住投资机会吗

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in the gold market, characterized by sharp rises and falls, is attributed to increased economic uncertainty, intensified US-China competition, geopolitical conflicts, and a new tax policy on gold trading set to take effect in November 2025 [1][3]. Market Dynamics - The immediate trigger for the gold market's fluctuations was the announcement of a new tax policy by the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation on October 31, which will significantly alter the tax treatment of gold transactions [3][5]. - Following the announcement, major gold trading businesses in Shenzhen suspended pricing and settlement operations, indicating a swift market reaction to the new regulations [3][5]. - The new policy introduces a dual classification of market participants and differentiates tax treatment based on the use of gold, impacting the trading logic in the market [3][5]. Tax Policy Implications - The new tax rules will reduce the input tax deduction for certain market participants, particularly affecting those involved in investment-grade gold transactions [5][6]. - The policy aims to eliminate tax arbitrage opportunities that previously allowed for speculative trading, leading to a significant exit of gray market funds and a subsequent drop in gold consumption stocks [5][6]. Investment Sentiment - Despite the volatility, gold remains a focal point due to its unique status as a scarce safe-haven asset, although its price is influenced by market sentiment and capital flows [8][10]. - Historical trends indicate that gold performs well in inflationary environments, and current economic conditions in the US suggest a supportive backdrop for gold prices [17][28]. Long-term Outlook - The long-term support for gold as an asset class remains intact, driven by central bank purchases and a shift in global reserve structures away from the dollar [12][28]. - The new tax policy is expected to have a dual effect, causing short-term emotional disturbances while promoting a more rational market structure in the long run [28][29]. Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to clearly define their investment logic and risk tolerance when considering gold, emphasizing its role as a risk hedge rather than a high-return asset [20][29]. - A recommended allocation of gold in a diversified portfolio is between 5% to 10%, with a focus on avoiding speculative behavior and identifying appropriate entry points during market corrections [20][29]. - For retail investors, gold ETFs and accumulation gold products are suggested as they offer lower barriers to entry and better liquidity compared to physical gold [24][29].