Is the bull market starting to slow?

Market Overview - There is ongoing discussion about a potential market bubble and whether the peak of the bull market has been reached, with strategists suggesting a pullback is imminent [1][2] - A pullback is considered normal and could be constructive, allowing markets to reset after significant gains [3][4] Earnings and Fundamentals - Despite market fluctuations, underlying fundamentals remain strong, with two-thirds of S&P companies reporting double-digit earnings growth [2][5] - The concentration of gains among a few stocks raises concerns, as six stocks have driven half of the S&P's record highs [4][5] Debt and Funding - Companies are increasingly funding their growth through debt markets rather than cash flow, which is a point of concern [6][8] - There is a need to monitor the intertwining of companies and their funders to avoid creating a "too big to fail" scenario [9] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to consider portfolio hygiene and global diversification, as U.S. markets have underperformed compared to global markets [11][12] - A pullback may present opportunities for clients to deploy cash or rebalance portfolios, especially for those with significant year-to-date gains [12][13] Economic Disparities - The stock market and economy are exhibiting a K-shaped recovery, with higher-income consumers driving resilience, while lower-income consumers face challenges [13][15] - The disparity in consumer spending patterns is notable, with higher-income consumers more tied to asset values, while lower-income consumers remain value-conscious [17] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve's medium-term outlook includes a target for interest rates around 3%, with expectations for rate cuts being moderated [18][20] - The credibility of the Fed is under scrutiny, as inflation expectations have shifted, indicating a potential long-term impact on its policies [26][27]