How a new report convinced Deutsche Bank it’s time to short the 10-year Treasury.

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy is growing at a normal pace, with recent data indicating a slight increase in bank willingness to extend consumer loans and a rise in mortgage demand, suggesting stability despite recent pressures on regional banks [3][4]. Economic Performance - Since November 4, 2024, the S&P 500 has increased by 19%, gold has risen by 46%, and bitcoin has surged by 54%, while the U.S. dollar has decreased by 4% [2]. - The 10-year Treasury bond futures have gained 2% in value, which is atypical given the current economic conditions [3]. Interest Rates and Treasury Bonds - Deutsche Bank strategists recommend shorting the 10-year Treasury, targeting a yield of 4.45% with a stop at 3.9%, compared to a recent close of 4.11% [3]. - The Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) indicates a rise in bank willingness to extend consumer loans, reaching the highest level since 2022, and an increase in mortgage demand for the first time since 2021 [3][4]. Market Reactions - U.S. stock futures indicate a sharply lower start, with bitcoin prices declining and the dollar slightly increasing [7]. - Key asset performance shows the S&P 500 at 6851.97, down 0.56% for the last day but up 16.50% year-to-date, while gold has increased by 51.69% year-to-date [8].