美联储理事米兰：ADP就业令人欣慰意外，预计继续降息，警告关税裁决或拖累经济

Core Viewpoint - The newly appointed Federal Reserve Governor, Milan, believes that continuing interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is a "reasonable action," including a potential cut in the upcoming December meeting [1]. Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - Milan supports further interest rate cuts, aiming to adjust the policy rate to a "neutral level" that neither stimulates nor suppresses economic growth [1]. - The Federal Reserve recently voted to cut rates by 25 basis points, bringing the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.75%-4%, although Milan opposed this decision, advocating for a 50 basis point cut instead [1][2]. - There is a divergence among Federal Reserve officials regarding the need for further rate cuts, with some expressing concerns about inflation and hesitance towards a December cut [1]. Group 2: Labor Market Insights - Milan remains optimistic about the labor market, citing a rebound in private sector employment with an addition of 42,000 jobs in October, following a loss of 29,000 jobs in September [2]. - Despite the positive employment data, Milan notes that overall trends indicate moderate job growth, slowing wage growth, and potentially weaker labor demand, suggesting that interest rates could be lower than current levels [2]. Group 3: Tariff and Economic Impact - Milan warns that a potential Supreme Court ruling against tariffs imposed by the Trump administration could increase economic uncertainty and burden the economy, as these tariffs have generated nearly $200 billion in revenue as of September 30 [2][3]. - He emphasizes that tariff revenues effectively increase national savings, which typically leads to lower interest rates; thus, the removal of these revenues could impact monetary policy significantly [3].