专访IMF前首席经济学家布兰查德：美国经济立于AI繁荣与关税阴影之间

Core Insights - The U.S. economy is currently experiencing a complex scenario characterized by strong consumer spending, rising AI investments, and a softening labor market [1][3] - The growth is primarily driven by productivity improvements from AI investments, which have both direct and indirect effects on demand and confidence [1][3] - There is uncertainty regarding whether the current productivity growth is a short-term cyclical rebound or a long-term structural shift [1][3] Economic Dynamics - Two opposing forces are influencing the U.S. economy: trade and tariff pressures, which are negative, and the positive impact of AI [3][4] - The current economic growth is strong, with productivity growth being a key factor explaining the disparity between output and employment growth [3][4] - The potential for higher structural growth in the U.S. economy is acknowledged, but the exact nature of productivity growth remains uncertain [3][4] AI and Employment - While AI investments are significant, there are concerns that they may lead to structural unemployment as certain skilled jobs could be replaced [1][11] - Individuals are advised to develop transferable skills to mitigate the risks associated with over-specialization in fields vulnerable to AI [1][11] - The historical context suggests that technological advancements have led to some job losses, but the current situation may be different, particularly for skilled labor [11] Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve's ability to lower interest rates is limited due to the mixed economic signals and the potential for inflationary pressures from tariffs [5][6] - Inflation is currently around 3%, which is above the Fed's target of 2%, leading to cautious monetary policy considerations [6][7] - The impact of tariffs on consumer demand and business investment is still unfolding, with uncertainty surrounding the long-term effects [8][9] Tariff Implications - Tariffs have not yet significantly impacted consumer behavior, but their effects may become more pronounced as import prices rise [8][9] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs is causing businesses to be cautious in their investment decisions, potentially leading to a decline in overall investment [8][9] - The current fiscal implications of tariffs are limited, primarily serving as a source of government revenue without altering fiscal policy direction [8][9] Inflation Expectations - The potential for inflation to manifest from tariffs is acknowledged, but the timing and magnitude of such effects remain uncertain [9][10] - The credibility of the Federal Reserve's inflation target will play a crucial role in shaping long-term inflation expectations [10] - Short-term inflationary pressures may arise, but they are expected to subside if confidence in the Fed's target remains intact [10]