美联储，降息生变！特朗普：美股将再创新高

Core Insights - The U.S. government shutdown has led to the suspension of several key economic statistics, making unofficial data crucial for investors to monitor the U.S. economy [1] - The ADP employment report for October indicates stronger-than-expected job growth in the private sector, with 42,000 jobs added, surpassing the Dow Jones estimate of 22,000 [1][2] - The report shows a mixed performance across industries, with significant job gains in trade, transportation, and utilities, while the information services sector experienced a decline [2] Employment Data Summary - In October, the trade, transportation, and utilities sectors added 47,000 jobs, education and health services added 26,000 jobs, and financial activities increased by 11,000 jobs [2] - The information services sector saw a reduction of 17,000 jobs, while professional and business services lost 15,000 jobs, and other services decreased by 13,000 jobs [2] - Manufacturing jobs decreased by 3,000, indicating limited success in bringing manufacturing jobs back to the U.S. [2] Company Size Analysis - Large companies (over 500 employees) added 73,000 jobs, while medium-sized companies lost 21,000 jobs, and small businesses saw a reduction of 10,000 jobs [2] - The average monthly job growth in the first half of the year was about 60,000, but this figure has significantly declined in the second half [3] Wage Growth Insights - Despite a slowdown in job growth, wages continue to rise, with wages for current employees increasing by 4.5% year-over-year, and job switchers seeing a 6.7% increase [2] - ADP's Chief Economist Nela Richardson noted that while job growth has slowed, the balance between supply and demand in the labor market remains stable [2] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is increasingly concerned about the employment market, with a 70.1% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December [4] - There is significant internal disagreement within the Federal Reserve regarding the continuation of rate cuts, with some officials advocating for a more aggressive approach [4][5] - Upcoming data releases, including the Challenger, Gray & Christmas monthly layoff report and initial jobless claims, will be closely monitored for insights into employment trends [5]