中信证券：展望明年 多种因素仍然很可能主导金价上行

Core Insights - The long-term price trend of gold is highly correlated with geopolitical and economic conditions [1] - The upward drivers of gold prices typically stem from geopolitical turmoil and weak performance of the U.S. economy [1] - Current downward risks are categorized into five types, which are not significantly present at the moment [1] Summary by Categories Price Drivers - Geopolitical chaos and weak U.S. economic performance are primary drivers for rising gold prices [1] - Recent fluctuations in gold prices are mainly influenced by U.S.-China trade relations and interest rate cut expectations [1] Downward Risks - The five categories of downward risks include: 1. Improvement in the U.S. economy 2. A hawkish shift from the Federal Reserve 3. Strong fiscal discipline in the U.S. 4. Easing geopolitical tensions 5. Global central banks selling gold - Currently, these risks are not significant [1] Long-term Outlook - In the long run, gold is expected to benefit from the expansion of global liquidity and increased preference due to risks associated with de-globalization [1] - Multiple factors are likely to dominate the upward trend of gold prices in the coming year [1]