白酒行业进入去库存周期 机构看好板块底部布局（附概念股）

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor industry experienced a decline in revenue and net profit in the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue at 310.28 billion yuan, down 5.48% year-on-year, and net profit at 122.69 billion yuan, down 6.63% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2025, the industry reported revenue of 76.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.4%, and net profit of 28.21 billion yuan, down 22.0% year-on-year [1] - The report from China International Capital Corporation (CICC) indicates a shift in consumer preferences towards high quality, functional, and health-oriented products, with leading companies focusing on stable operations and high-quality development [1] Industry Overview - The liquor industry's revenue and profit growth rates are categorized as national famous liquor > real estate liquor > sub-high-end liquor [1] - The demand for liquor remains weak, compounded by new regulations affecting both supply and demand, leading to significant adjustments in the market [1] - The report anticipates a continuation of weak recovery and strong differentiation in the industry, with growth increasingly reliant on product innovation, fragmented channel strategies, and expanding consumer demographics [1] Future Outlook - CICC forecasts that the liquor industry will see improvements in 2026, with demand expected to recover gradually as policy impacts diminish and consumption scenarios stabilize [2] - The report suggests that leading liquor companies with strong brand power and innovative products will benefit the most from the anticipated recovery [2] - Guangfa Securities notes that the performance disparity among liquor companies has increased, with strong brands showing resilience amid ongoing pressure [2] Company Specifics - Zhenjiu Lidu (06979) launched its new flagship product "Dazhen," which has already generated 370 million yuan in returns and signed over 2,800 alliance merchants nationwide [3] - The introduction of "Dazhen" is expected to enhance Zhenjiu Lidu's growth trajectory by positioning it alongside its existing product lines, Zhen 15 and Zhen 30, focusing on high quality and price competitiveness [3]