黄金市场在交易什么?

Core Insights - The long-term price trend of gold is highly correlated with geopolitical and economic conditions, with upward movements typically driven by geopolitical turmoil and weak U.S. economic performance [1][2] - Current risks for gold price declines are not significant, including factors such as a recovering U.S. economy, hawkish Federal Reserve policies, strong fiscal discipline, easing geopolitical tensions, and global central banks selling gold [1][8][10][12][13] - In the long run, gold is expected to benefit from the expansion of global liquidity and increased preference due to de-globalization risks [1][16] Historical Context - Since 1971, gold price trends can be divided into three phases: the 1960s-70s characterized by U.S. struggles during the Vietnam War and economic issues leading to stagflation; the 1980s-90s marked by U.S. economic growth and a decline in gold prices; and the 21st century where geopolitical and financial crises have accelerated gold's price detachment from the dollar [2] Current Market Dynamics - Recent fluctuations in gold prices were primarily driven by U.S.-China trade relations and expectations of interest rate cuts, with significant price movements observed from late August to mid-October [20][23] - The stability of U.S.-China trade relations and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy are expected to be key factors influencing gold prices in the near term, with a general upward trend anticipated [23] Long-term Outlook - Long-term factors supporting gold prices include liquidity expansion from credit monetary systems and a rising preference for gold among global central banks and investors [16] - The complex global monetary system may see gold, along with other precious metals and cryptocurrencies, playing increasingly important roles, potentially leading to long-term price increases [16]