集智股份(300553)：增速仍高 “国产替代+深海科技”再进一步

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong revenue growth in the first three quarters of 2025, but profit growth has slowed significantly due to fair value changes and declining gross margins [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 235 million, a year-on-year increase of 42.78%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 32 million, up 133.25% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 alone, revenue was 74 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 26.73%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 9 million, up 47.82% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 41.78%, down 2.42 percentage points year-on-year, with Q3 gross margin at 44.82%, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase but a year-on-year decline of 2.76 percentage points [1]. Expense Analysis - The company's expense ratio for the first three quarters was 32.30%, a decrease of 10.59 percentage points year-on-year, with specific rates for sales, management, R&D, and financial expenses [2]. - In Q3, the expense ratio rose to 38.99%, a year-on-year decrease of 4.93% but an increase of 13.39% quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to higher interest expenses from convertible bonds and costs associated with the Zhizhi Port Center building [2]. Growth Drivers - The company achieved significant breakthroughs in high-end domestic substitution and its "Diti" business, with the successful validation of the "DG3 High-Speed Balancing and Overspeed Testing Equipment" marking a major step in domestic technology [3]. - A strategic cooperation framework agreement was signed with an undisclosed entity to collaborate on underwater acoustic signal processing technology, indicating progress towards commercialization of new growth areas [3]. Profit Forecast - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders of 53 million, 97 million, and 170 million for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 78, 43, and 24 [3].