金价暴跌80美元！美政府停摆影响流动性，鲍威尔泼冷水，分析师却称长期涨势未改｜大宗风云

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in international gold prices have been influenced by the prolonged U.S. government shutdown, which has led to increased market liquidity concerns and a stronger U.S. dollar, resulting in a significant drop in gold prices [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Conditions - On November 4, international gold futures prices fell sharply, with COMEX gold futures dropping from $4013/oz to a low of $3931.30/oz, while COMEX silver futures closed at $46.90/oz [2]. - The U.S. government shutdown has reached a historic 36 days, causing market unease and impacting liquidity, which counteracts the effects of interest rate cuts in October [3][4]. - The market's adjustment of interest rate cut expectations has led to a rise in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar, diminishing gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset [3][4]. Group 2: Dollar Strength - The dollar index has surged past the 100 mark, supported by reduced interest rate cut expectations and the weakness of the euro and yen, as both the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan have maintained their current policies [5]. - If the government shutdown is resolved, liquidity may improve as funds flow back into the market, potentially leading to a decrease in the dollar index [5]. Group 3: Tax Policy Impact - A new tax policy regarding gold trading, effective from November 1, 2025, aims to encourage on-exchange trading by exempting value-added tax for certain transactions, which may shift interest towards investment products like gold ETFs [6][7]. - The policy may negatively impact non-investment gold consumption due to increased costs, while the overall long-term price trajectory of gold is expected to remain stable despite short-term speculative behavior [7][8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the recent rise in actual interest rates and the cooling of rate cut expectations are primary factors behind the recent decline in gold prices, with short-term weakness anticipated if the dollar index remains above 100.5 [9][10]. - Long-term drivers for gold prices, such as central bank purchases and the ongoing trend of dollar credit expansion, are expected to provide upward momentum for gold [10].