“AI供电交易”热火朝天，设备制造商“鸡犬升天”

Core Insights - The urgent demand for artificial intelligence power from tech companies is reshaping the power equipment market, with small turbine and fuel cell manufacturers emerging as unexpected winners, significantly outperforming traditional equipment giants [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Data centers are facing a severe power shortage, with Morgan Stanley estimating a 45 GW shortfall in the U.S. by 2028, equivalent to the total generation capacity of Illinois [1] - The supply-demand imbalance is driving data centers to adopt off-grid solutions that are more expensive but quicker to deliver, leading to a surge in stock prices for companies like Bloom Energy, which has seen its stock rise over 500% this year [1][3] - Caterpillar and Rolls-Royce have also recorded significant stock price increases due to the rising demand for small turbines and reciprocating engines [1] Group 2: Company Performance - Bloom Energy's solid oxide fuel cells, powered by natural gas, are being heavily procured by data centers, with the company's stock experiencing a sharp increase after announcing agreements with major power companies [3] - Caterpillar reported a 33% year-over-year increase in sales to power generation customers, primarily data centers, and is expanding its supply to various states [4] - Generac, a manufacturer of backup generators, is also witnessing strong demand from large tech companies, although this is somewhat overshadowed by weak residential sales [4] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - There is a noticeable valuation disparity, with turbine and reciprocating engine manufacturers appearing to be more reasonable entry points compared to larger turbine manufacturers like GE Vernova, which has a forward P/E ratio of 47 [5] - The modular nature of small devices provides a competitive edge for data centers requiring near 100% uptime, despite their higher generation costs compared to larger turbines [5] - The upfront costs and maintenance expenses of solid oxide fuel cells are higher, but their fuel efficiency and lower emissions may provide regulatory advantages [5] Group 4: Capacity Expansion and Market Sustainability - Due to supply bottlenecks, data centers are prioritizing speed over cost, with customers willing to pay a premium for power delivery in 2027 or 2028 [6] - Strong demand is prompting manufacturers like Caterpillar to consider capacity expansion, while Bloom Energy plans to double its manufacturing capacity by December 2026 [6] - Large turbine manufacturers are being cautious, having previously suffered from overbuilding during the tech boom in the early 2000s, which may present opportunities for small equipment manufacturers [6]