黄金早参 | 美政府停摆破记录，避险情绪升温，金价震荡走强

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government shutdown has reached a record 36 days, leading to increased risk aversion and a rise in gold prices, with COMEX gold futures up 0.75% to $3990.40 per ounce [1] Economic Impact - The Congressional Budget Office warns that if the shutdown continues for six weeks, economic losses could reach $11 billion, and the annual growth rate of U.S. GDP in Q4 is expected to decline by 1 to 2 percentage points [1] Gold Market Analysis - Historical patterns indicate that gold prices are closely linked to geopolitical and economic conditions, with upward pressure typically arising from geopolitical turmoil and weak U.S. economic performance [1] - Current downward risks for gold prices include a recovering U.S. economy, a hawkish Federal Reserve, strong fiscal discipline, easing geopolitical tensions, and global central banks selling gold, none of which are currently significant [1] - Long-term, gold is expected to benefit from the expansion of global liquidity and increased preference due to risks associated with de-globalization [1] - Recent volatility in gold prices has been primarily driven by U.S.-China trade relations and interest rate cut expectations, with multiple factors likely to continue influencing upward trends in gold prices next year [1]