“存款搬家”效应显现，10月银行理财规模创历史新高

Core Insights - The overall scale of bank wealth management products continues to grow, reaching a historical high of 33.18 trillion yuan by the end of October, despite experiencing two rounds of net value declines this year [1][2][4] - The shift from a "savings" to an "investment" mindset among residents is accelerating, driven by the "price comparison effect" as deposit rates decline and wealth management products offer relatively higher returns [1][2][3] Summary by Sections Market Scale and Growth - As of the end of October, the bank wealth management market reached 33.18 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.05 trillion yuan from the previous month and 3.23 trillion yuan since the beginning of the year, slightly above the average level of the past three years [2][4] - The growth in scale is attributed to the ongoing decline in deposit rates, prompting customers to seek alternative investment opportunities [3][5] Performance of Wealth Management Products - Wealth management product returns have been under pressure, showing a quarterly decline: 2,060 billion yuan in Q1, 1,836 billion yuan in Q2, and 1,792 billion yuan in Q3 [4] - The average annualized return for closed-end and open-end fixed-income products in Q3 was 2.73% and 2.54%, respectively, both below the average performance benchmark [4] Future Outlook - The wealth management scale is expected to continue growing, with projections of an increase of 300 to 400 billion yuan in November, supported by the release of funds from maturing fixed deposits and the relative return advantage of fixed-income products [6][7] - The monetary policy environment is favorable for growth, with the central bank's actions expected to enhance liquidity and improve the ability of wealth management companies to manage redemptions and volatility [7] - However, the long-term outlook suggests a downward trend in returns, with expectations of a gradual decline in the yield of fixed-income products due to a persistently accommodative monetary policy [8]