金荣中国：“小非农”高于市场预期，金价短线回落加剧震荡

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. job market shows signs of recovery with an increase in employment, but overall growth remains limited and inflationary pressures persist, impacting consumer demand and profitability [3][4][5]. Economic Indicators - The ADP employment report for October indicates an increase of 42,000 jobs, surpassing market expectations of 28,000, following a revised loss of 29,000 jobs in September [3]. - The U.S. services sector PMI rose from 50.0 in September to 52.4 in October, suggesting a robust economic performance entering Q4, driven by strong growth in the services sector [5]. - The overall business activity growth is estimated at an annualized rate of approximately 2.5%, consistent with the solid expansion trend observed in Q3 [4]. Sector Performance - Growth in employment was primarily seen in education, healthcare, trade, transportation, and utilities, while sectors like professional business services and leisure continue to experience layoffs [3][5]. - Despite the increase in new orders, the services employment index remains below the neutral level, indicating ongoing weakness in the labor market [5]. Inflation and Cost Pressures - Service providers are facing high input costs, which they struggle to pass on to consumers, leading to potential profit margin pressures [4][5]. - The ADP report suggests that wage growth has stabilized, reflecting a balance in supply and demand dynamics in the labor market [3]. Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates remains cautious, with a 62.5% probability of a 25 basis point cut in December, influenced by ongoing economic uncertainties and employment trends [6].