要为大事做准备？中国吞下全球九成新增石油，能源安全要握在手中

Core Insights - China's crude oil imports have increased for 18 consecutive months, with September showing a year-on-year growth of 9.4%, indicating a strong demand for oil in the country [2][4] - The average daily crude oil arrival in China for the first nine months of the year was 11.1 million barrels, with about 10% going directly into strategic reserves [4] - The new Energy Law, effective January 1, mandates government and enterprise oil reserves, creating a legal obligation for refineries to maintain a certain level of storage [5] Group 1: Import Dynamics - The increase in oil imports is driven by lower Brent crude prices, which fell below $69 per barrel, making it cheaper for refineries to procure oil [7] - Local refineries have accelerated their import quotas, leading to a rare issuance of an additional 3 million tons of import quotas by customs [7] - The average waiting time for oil tankers has increased from 42 hours to 67 hours due to the need for third-party inspections before oil can be officially recorded [5] Group 2: Strategic Reserves - China's strategic oil reserves are designed to cover half of the annual net import volume, with a goal to reach 90 days of reserves as recommended by the International Energy Agency [4][5] - The country is transitioning its oil storage from commercial to strategic, which reduces the global supply of available oil and supports higher oil prices [10] - The strategic reserve system includes a rotation mechanism to ensure oil quality and prevent resource wastage [14] Group 3: Currency and Trade - China has initiated pilot programs for crude oil trade settlements in RMB, allowing exporters to convert RMB into USD in offshore markets, reducing reliance on the US dollar [8] - Approximately 12% of crude oil imports are now settled in RMB, with the growth rate doubling each year [8] Group 4: Energy Security and Alternatives - The diversification of oil supply sources, including land pipelines from Russia and Central Asia, has reduced dependency on maritime routes, enhancing energy security [11] - Domestic shale oil and tight oil production costs have decreased, allowing for increased output when prices are favorable [11] - The transition to renewable energy sources does not negate the need for oil, as fossil fuels remain essential for energy stability during the transition period [13] Group 5: Market Implications - The global oil inventory is shifting, with the US and Europe reducing their strategic reserves while China is increasing its own, potentially leading to higher global oil prices [10] - China's strategic reserves serve as a buffer against external supply disruptions, ensuring stable domestic energy supply and economic operations [16]