危险！美国汽车贷款违约率“狂飙”

Core Insights - The rising auto loan default rates in the U.S. signal deteriorating consumer financial conditions, which may negatively impact overall consumption and the economy [3][9][11] Group 1: Auto Loan Default Rates - Fitch Ratings reports that by August 2025, the percentage of subprime auto loans overdue by more than 60 days is projected to reach 6.43%, the highest since 1993, surpassing the peak of 5.04% during the financial crisis [3] - J.D. Power indicates that nearly 14% of new car buyers in September had credit scores below 650, marking the highest level since 2016 [3] Group 2: Consumer Financial Pressure - The increase in auto loan defaults reflects growing financial pressure on consumers, leading to reduced discretionary spending and potential economic slowdown [3][9] - VantageScore's research shows that auto loan default rates have surged over 50% in the past 15 years, transforming auto loans from a safe credit product to one of the riskiest [4] Group 3: Loan Characteristics and Trends - Many consumers are extending loan terms to reduce monthly payments, with some loans stretching to 7 years or more, resulting in a situation where the loan amount exceeds the vehicle's current value [5][6] - The average new car price has risen over 25% since 2019, with the average monthly payment reaching $767, and about 20% of borrowers paying over $1,000 monthly [6][7] Group 4: Economic Implications - The increase in auto loan defaults is expected to lead to stricter lending standards, making it harder for consumers to obtain loans, which could further suppress auto market demand [9][11] - The overall consumer auto debt in the U.S. has surpassed $1.66 trillion, with a significant rise in long-term loans, including 7-year and even 8-year terms [8] Group 5: Future Outlook - The trend of rising auto loan default rates is likely to continue, with potential to exceed 7% due to persistent economic pressures and rising vehicle prices [11] - The health of auto loans is viewed as a barometer for the U.S. economy, particularly for low-income households, indicating broader economic challenges [11]