渤海租赁(000415)：主业持续向好有望推动公司业绩触底回升

Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, achieving 40.284 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 60.58% [1] - Despite the revenue growth, the company experienced a net loss attributable to shareholders of 1.372 billion yuan, a shift from profit compared to the previous year [1] - Excluding the impact of goodwill impairment from the sale of container assets, the net profit for the first three quarters was 1.904 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 19.75% [1] Revenue Performance - The company’s revenue growth for the first three quarters of 2025 was 60.58%, with a notable increase in Q3 revenue of 11.824 billion yuan, up 32.73% year-on-year and 4.24% quarter-on-quarter [2] - The revenue growth was driven by fleet expansion and a favorable industry environment, alongside continued high aircraft sales compared to the previous year [2] - In Q3 2025, the company sold 15 aircraft, an increase of 4 aircraft year-on-year but a decrease of 5 aircraft quarter-on-quarter [2] Cost and Profit Analysis - The operating cost for Q3 2025 was 10.926 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 46.20% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2025 was 646 million yuan, a decrease of 26.03% year-on-year, but a recovery from losses in the previous quarter [2] Fleet Expansion and Industry Outlook - As of the end of Q3 2025, the company had a total of 601 owned, 36 managed, and 522 ordered aircraft, showing growth in fleet size despite significant aircraft sales [4] - The company has placed an order for 90 additional aircraft from Airbus, with an option for 40 more, expected to be delivered by the end of 2033 [4] - The overall industry remains robust, with Boeing and Airbus delivering an average of 105 aircraft per month and holding 159 aircraft orders, indicating sustained high industry demand [4] Investment Recommendation - The company maintains a "buy" rating based on the ongoing positive outlook for the aircraft leasing industry, with projected revenues of 47.1 billion, 38 billion, and 41.1 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting growth rates of 22.54%, -19.24%, and 7.96% respectively [5] - The net profit forecasts for the same period are -100 million, 1.7 billion, and 2.4 billion yuan, with a significant expected growth rate of 39.28% over three years [5]