证券之星消息，1月29日多元金融板块较上一交易日上涨0.42%，江苏金租领涨。当日上证指数报收于 4157.98，上涨0.16%。深证成指报收于14300.08，下跌0.3%。多元金融板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入(元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入(元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000617 | 中油资本 | 6568.63万 | 6.60% | 1330.53万 | 1.34% | -7899.16万 | -7.94% | | 000415 渤海租赁 | | 5186.84万 | 11.77% | -2316.04万 | -5.26% | -2870.80万 | -6.52% | | 000987 越秀资本 | | 3563.61万 | 2.78% | -1896.93万 | -1.48% | -- 1666.68万 | -1.30% | | 002961 瑞达期货 | | 856.05万 | 2.80% | 953.42万 | 3.12% ...

Core Viewpoint - Bohai Leasing is expected to report a significant divergence in its 2025 performance, with a projected net profit loss of 250 million to 500 million yuan, primarily due to a one-time goodwill impairment. However, excluding the impact of a 3.289 billion yuan goodwill impairment in the first half of the year, the net profit attributable to shareholders is estimated to be around 2.8 billion to 3.05 billion yuan, reflecting a substantial year-on-year increase of 210% to 237% [1] Group 1 - The core driving factors for the expected profit increase include strong global air passenger demand and limited production capacity from aircraft manufacturers, which have kept aircraft leasing rates and renewal rates at high levels [1] - Accelerated aircraft sales are also contributing positively to the company's performance [1] - A debt restructuring gain is anticipated to be confirmed in Q4 2025, further supporting the financial outlook [1] Group 2 - Looking ahead to 2026, the removal of impairment disturbances, combined with expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve leading to lower financing costs, and the delivery of high-margin aircraft, is expected to result in a substantial reversal in the company's performance [1] - The strategic transformation focusing on aircraft leasing is expected to yield further positive results [1] - The company is assigned a valuation of 1x PB for 2026, corresponding to a reasonable value of 5.26 yuan per share, with a "Buy" rating [1]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform" [1][51] Core Insights - Aircraft manufacturers are slowly recovering their production capacity, but delivery delays persist due to supply chain and labor shortages. Boeing is expected to deliver 600 aircraft in 2025, averaging about 50 per month, while Airbus is projected to deliver 793 aircraft, averaging about 66 per month. The backlog of aircraft orders remains at historically high levels [2][5][7]. - Global civil aviation passenger traffic growth has slowed down, with all regions except Africa experiencing a decrease in year-on-year growth rates compared to October. Africa's airlines saw an increase of 12.6%. Europe accounted for the largest share of international passenger traffic, with a year-on-year growth of 6.8% in November, while Asia's international passenger traffic grew by 9.3% [2][11][15][18]. - Overall, while aircraft manufacturers' production capacity is recovering, it still cannot meet the continuously expanding demand for aircraft. The aircraft leasing market remains strong, benefiting from the tight supply-demand situation. The Asia-Pacific aviation market has significant growth potential, providing broader development space for Chinese aircraft leasing companies, which are currently undervalued compared to global leader AerCap [2][3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Aircraft Supply Continues to be Tight - Boeing's monthly delivery volume has significantly improved compared to last year, while Airbus's delivery volume is slightly better than the same period last year. However, both manufacturers' delivery levels are still far from previous highs [5]. - The backlog of aircraft orders remains at historical highs, with Boeing and Airbus accumulating new orders of 1,175 and 1,000 aircraft respectively in 2025 [7]. 2. Update on Civil Aviation Passenger Demand - In November 2025, global aviation revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) grew by 5.7% year-on-year, down from 6.6% in October. The global passenger load factor (PLF) reached 83.7%, the highest for November on record [11][15]. - The international passenger traffic in November showed robust growth, with Asia-Pacific and Europe regions maintaining strong performance, while North America saw a growth of 4.0% [18]. 3. Tracking Aircraft Leasing Companies - As of June 30, 2025, Bohai Leasing has the largest number of owned aircraft (628), while China Aircraft Leasing has the least (151). In terms of aircraft orders, Bohai Leasing also leads with 442 orders [39][44]. - The average remaining lease term for China Aircraft Leasing is relatively long at 7.9 years, ensuring long-term stability for the company's leases [47].

Core Viewpoint - The diversified financial sector experienced a rise of 0.94% on January 22, with Bohai Leasing leading the gains, while the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4122.58, up 0.14% [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The diversified financial sector's stocks showed varied performance, with Bohai Leasing closing at 4.43, up 4.73%, and a trading volume of 2.36 million shares, amounting to 1.063 billion yuan [1]. - Other notable performers included *ST Panda, which rose by 3.97% to 8.65, and Yuexiu Capital, which increased by 1.88% to 10.86, with trading volumes of 42,400 shares and 1.9745 million shares respectively [1]. Group 2: Capital Flow - The diversified financial sector saw a net outflow of 26.724 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 14.3 million yuan [2]. - The capital flow data indicated that Bohai Leasing had a net inflow of 68.0427 million yuan from institutional investors, despite a net outflow from retail investors [3].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that Bohai Leasing achieved a transaction volume of 1.023 billion RMB, marking a new high since December 11, 2024 [2] - The latest stock price of Bohai Leasing increased by 4.49%, with a turnover rate of 4.21% [2] - The previous trading day recorded a total transaction volume of 398 million RMB for the stock [2] Group 2 - Bohai Leasing Co., Ltd. was established on August 30, 1993, with a registered capital of 6.184521282 billion RMB [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company [2] Core Insights - The company is expected to experience a significant recovery in core profits, driven by the optimization of its asset structure and the anticipated decline in financing costs due to expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [9][13] - Despite a projected net loss of 2.5 billion to 5 billion yuan in 2025 due to one-time goodwill impairment, the core net profit is expected to increase significantly when excluding this impact [9] - The company is expected to generate substantial cash flow from asset disposals, which will help reduce high-interest debt and improve financial conditions [9] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2023, 2024, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 33,675 million, 38,431 million, 49,115 million, 39,287 million, and 37,222 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of 5.5%, 14.1%, 27.8%, -20.0%, and -5.3% [8] - The expected EBITDA for the same years is 22,757 million, 23,534 million, 16,332 million, 17,387 million, and 20,410 million yuan [8] - The projected net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023, 2024, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E is 1,281 million, 904 million, -315 million, 2,784 million, and 3,487 million yuan, with growth rates of 164.5%, -29.5%, -134.8%, 984.2%, and 25.3% [8] Valuation and Price Target - The reasonable value per share is estimated at 5.26 yuan, based on a 1x price-to-book ratio for 2026 [9][13] - The company is expected to achieve a significant turnaround in 2026, with a projected net profit of 27.84 billion yuan and a book value per share of 5.26 yuan [13]

Group 1: Domestic News - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes accelerating the construction of a cross-border payment system for the renminbi, aiming for a diversified and multi-layered development by 2026 [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) reports that the industrial and information sectors contributed over 40% to economic growth, with a projected 5.9% increase in industrial value added by 2025 [3] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development (MOHURD) plans to stabilize the real estate market by focusing on urban renewal, community construction, and improving housing sales systems [5] Group 2: International News - Former President Trump announces a framework agreement with NATO regarding Greenland, temporarily halting planned tariffs on European countries [6] - The U.S. Treasury yields show a general decline, with the 10-year Treasury yield down by 4 basis points to 4.26% [25] Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market shows a strong performance with the 10-year government bond yield decreasing by 0.05 basis points to 1.8335% [10] - The credit bond market experiences significant price deviations, with some industrial bonds seeing price changes exceeding 10% [11] - Vanke announces a bondholder meeting where a proposal to extend the maturity of a portion of its bonds was approved [12] Group 4: Commodity Market - International crude oil prices rise, with WTI crude up 0.43% to $60.62 per barrel, and natural gas prices surge nearly 30% to $5.040 per million British thermal units [7] Group 5: Equity and Convertible Bond Market - The equity market sees a collective rise, with major indices increasing, and the convertible bond market also reflects this trend with major indices up by approximately 0.90% [21] - The convertible bond market records a trading volume of 912.89 billion yuan, with 308 out of 385 bonds rising in value [21]

经济观察网2026年1月21日，渤海租赁（000415）发布2025年度业绩预告，预计2025年净利润亏损2.5亿 元至5亿元。扣除非经常性损益后的净利润亏损11亿元至16亿元。 ...

Group 1: Profit Forecasts - Gan Li Pharmaceutical expects a net profit of 1.1 billion to 1.2 billion yuan for 2025, an increase of 78.96% to 95.23% year-on-year [1] - Astone Technology anticipates a net loss of 40 million to 60 million yuan for 2025, compared to a loss of 25.34 million yuan in the previous year [2] - JinkoSolar forecasts a net loss of 5.9 billion to 6.9 billion yuan for 2025 [6] - Time Space Technology expects a net loss of 235 million to 290 million yuan for 2025 [7] - Phi Li Hua predicts a net profit of 412 million to 472 million yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 31.12% to 50.22% [8] - Southern Precision expects a net profit of 300 million to 370 million yuan for 2025, representing a growth of 1130% to 1417% [10] - Daikin Heavy Industries anticipates a net profit of 1.05 billion to 1.2 billion yuan for 2025, an increase of 121.58% to 153.23% [11] - Qianfang Technology expects a net profit of 250 million to 320 million yuan for 2025, recovering from a loss of 1.193 billion yuan in the previous year [18] - Bohai Leasing forecasts a net loss of 250 million to 500 million yuan for 2025, with a significant goodwill impairment loss expected [13] - Qujiang Cultural Tourism anticipates a net loss of 130 million to 165 million yuan for 2025 [31] Group 2: Corporate Announcements - Hualan Biological Engineering received approval for clinical trials of its recombinant shingles vaccine [3] - Baishan Nonferrous Metals announced the resignation of its chairman, Wang Pugong, due to work changes [4] - Binhai Energy plans to invest approximately 548 million yuan in two projects related to porous carbon and silicon-carbon anode materials [15] - Nankai Group signed a 296 million yuan equipment sales contract with Inner Mongolia Xijin Mining Co., Ltd. [16] - Tianhua New Energy is planning to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [12] - Xinneng Technology is also planning to issue H-shares and apply for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [28] - Lu Wei Optoelectronics intends to raise no more than 1.38 billion yuan through a private placement [26]

Core Viewpoint - Bohai Leasing (000415.SZ) expects a net loss attributable to shareholders of 250 million to 500 million yuan for the fiscal year 2025, primarily due to the impairment loss related to the sale of its subsidiary Global Sea Containers Ltd [1] Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit loss of 250 million to 500 million yuan for 2025, a decline of approximately 1.15 billion to 1.4 billion yuan compared to the previous year [1] - The impairment loss of about 3.289 billion yuan was recognized in the first half of 2025 due to the sale of 100% equity of Global Sea Containers Ltd, which was sold at a price lower than its net assets [1] Transaction Details - In May 2025, the company's wholly-owned subsidiary Global Sea Containers Two Limited signed a share purchase agreement with Typewriter Ascend Ltd to sell its 100% stake in Global Sea Containers Ltd [1] - The completion of the equity transfer occurred on December 15, 2025 (New York time) [1]