华创证券：企业级需求高增驱动新一轮存储超级周期 对25Q4及26年存储价格预期乐观

Core Viewpoint - Recent comprehensive price increases in storage are driven by a recovery in data center construction momentum and heightened storage requirements from AI servers, leading to a new cycle of innovation and significantly increased storage demand [1]. Group 1: DRAM Market Insights - The demand for enterprise-level DRAM is surging, with expectations for DRAM price increases in Q4 2025. The reduction in DDR4 supply due to overseas manufacturers cutting production has led to a rise in DDR5 penetration in the PC sector, while server demand is recovering [1]. - Trendforce has revised its forecast for DRAM price increases in Q4 2025, with general DRAM prices expected to rise by 18-23%, up from a previous estimate of 8-13% [1]. - For 2026, strong server demand is anticipated to keep DDR5 contract prices on an upward trend throughout the year, particularly in the first half [1]. Group 2: NAND Flash Market Insights - NAND Flash prices are experiencing strong increases due to supply optimization and rising enterprise-level demand, with SanDisk announcing a price hike of over 10% for all products in September 2025 [2]. - As of October 29, 2025, prices for TLC flash memory have risen significantly, with increases of 16.7% for 256Gb, 61.3% for 512Gb, and 27.0% for 1Tb compared to September 2, 2025 [2]. - Trendforce predicts that NAND contract prices will see an overall increase in Q4 2025, with an average rise of 5-10% expected [2]. Group 3: AI Server Impact on Storage Requirements - The expansion of global data center infrastructure is intensifying, with NAND and DRAM applications in servers becoming the core growth engine of the global storage market [3]. - There is a growing demand for low-power memory in data centers, with limited new capacity for traditional DRAM expected in 2026. The focus is shifting towards HBM, which is seen as the key growth driver in the DRAM industry [3]. - The need for high-capacity eSSD applications is increasing, with KVCache offloading becoming a critical strategy to enhance computational efficiency and address memory overflow issues [4]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Future Trends - The demand for NAND is expected to see explosive growth due to the increasing data requirements for model training and the rising adoption of high-capacity SSDs [4]. - The shift towards using SSDs to fill the gap left by HDD shortages is becoming a focal point in the market, particularly for high-capacity QLC SSDs, which may see significant growth in shipments by 2026 [4].