过去6年的招聘裁员数据，有点诡异

Core Insights - The report highlights significant changes in human resource management practices among Chinese companies over the past six years, indicating a shift from aggressive hiring and firing to a more cautious approach focused on retaining core talent [1][6]. Group 1: Employee Turnover - The employee turnover rate has remained relatively high, fluctuating between 18% and 20% over the past six years, suggesting that companies typically replace about 20% of their workforce annually [3]. - The non-voluntary turnover rate, or layoff rate, has been between 10% and 12.5%, showing a parabolic trend with peaks in 2022 and 2024, indicating a previous wave of layoffs that has since stabilized [3]. - Future layoffs are expected to become a norm but will likely remain stable rather than escalating [3]. Group 2: Recruitment Trends - Recruitment rates have been on a downward trend, decreasing from a peak of 19.6% to 15.9%, marking the largest drop in six years [4]. - The net talent inflow rate, which was positive at 2%-5% from 2020 to 2023, has dropped to 0.6% in 2024, with a negative net inflow of -2.1% for the first time, reflecting a lack of confidence in the economic recovery [5]. - The social recruitment rate, which typically constitutes about 80% of total recruitment, has also declined to 12.9%, indicating a reduced enthusiasm for hiring and a preference for cost-effective new hires [5]. Group 3: Talent Management Strategy - Companies are shifting their focus from the quantity of workforce to the quality of core talent, adopting a "small in, small out" approach during economic downturns [6]. - The emphasis on the "80/20 rule" suggests that a small percentage of employees generate the majority of value, leading to a more intensive focus on core talent management [6]. - Companies are increasingly prioritizing internal talent mobility over extensive training, becoming more selective in hiring and proactive in talent optimization [7].