11月1日黄金行情“过山车”，变盘风暴即将来袭？

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing extreme volatility, raising questions about whether it has reached a turning point and what larger shifts may be forthcoming [1] Market Dynamics - Recent fluctuations in gold prices have been dramatic, with prices dropping from $4025 to $3945, and domestic prices falling from over 1000 to just above 900 [3] - Despite the loss of confidence among retail investors, central banks continue to buy gold, with China increasing its reserves by several tons over three months, indicating a long-term value recognition [3] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy, currently at a 3.75% interest rate, adds uncertainty to the gold market, contributing to its volatility [3] Investor Behavior - Investor experiences vary widely, with some suffering significant losses while others profit through strategic buying at lower prices [4] - A specific investor strategy involves buying when prices dip and selling during rebounds, demonstrating the potential for profit even in a volatile market [4] Technical Analysis - The technical outlook for gold is concerning, with a two-week decline in weekly prices and a critical support level at $3850; a breach of this level could lead to further declines [4] - The largest gold fund recently reduced its holdings by four tons, and a decrease in trading volume has raised suspicions among market participants [4] - Current gold prices are fluctuating between $3960 and $4045, with a focus on the $4030 weekly closing price as a potential pivot point [4] Future Outlook - The future trajectory of gold prices remains uncertain, heavily influenced by the Federal Reserve's policy decisions; a failure to lower interest rates could lead to a sharp decline in prices [5] - Historical precedents show that unexpected events, such as government shutdowns, can lead to significant price increases, adding to the unpredictability of the market [5] - Investors are advised to adopt cautious strategies, including phased buying and strict stop-loss measures, while closely monitoring key price levels to navigate the volatile gold market [5]