AI眼中的2025年市场：人类投资者太悲观，自认为已进化，但行为模式依旧

Core Insights - The report from Deutsche Bank highlights that human investors are overly pessimistic and exhibit irrational, emotional, and cognitive biases in their investment behaviors, despite believing they have evolved in a "new investment world" [1][5] Group 1: Market Sentiment Analysis - Deutsche Bank's AI system, dbLumina, analyzed daily market comments from January to October 2025, quantifying market psychology through a "Rational/Fear Index" ranging from -1.00 to +1.00, where negative scores indicate excessive fear and reaction to external negative factors [1] - The analysis revealed that investors were in a "non-rational" state for most of 2025, with the index hitting its lowest point in April during a panic sell-off, while the S&P 500 rebounded by 23% from its March low, validating the AI's assessment [1] Group 2: Emotional Trends - A notable trend identified was that investors' rationality improved as market uncertainty decreased, suggesting that they only exhibit rational behavior in calm conditions, reverting to fear and overreaction during uncertainty [2] - The dominant emotion throughout the year was "anxiety," persisting regardless of market movements, with "euphoria" only appearing once during the most severe sell-off in April and May, indicating a potential buying opportunity [4] Group 3: Cognitive Biases - The report emphasizes that investors are driven by short-term events, with the prevalent cognitive biases being "recency bias" and "availability heuristic," leading to decisions based on recent information rather than a comprehensive analysis [7] - AI analysis categorized the evolution of investor psychology into three phases: heightened sensitivity to geopolitical and interest rate issues at the beginning of the year, increased resilience to trade wars mid-year, and normalization of uncertainty acceptance later, yet still driven by short-term reactions [7] Group 4: AI vs. Human Sentiment - AI identified that investor fears do not align with actual market drivers, as evidenced by the frequent mention of the labor market, which did not rank among the top three investor fears [8] - Throughout 2025, AI's sentiment index remained more optimistic than that of human investors, particularly during the tumultuous period in April, indicating that AI can recover from short-term negative events more swiftly [8]