降息周期将暂停？英国央行鹰鸽激辩，行长贝利成关键“砝码”

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4%, halting the previous trend of quarterly rate cuts since August 2024, amid concerns over high inflation and the upcoming autumn budget from the Labour government [1][4] Group 1: Decision Dynamics - Economists predict a close vote, with a common forecast of a 6-3 split among the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members [2] - There is significant division within the committee, with hawks concerned about persistent inflation and doves focusing on slowing economic growth and weak labor demand [2] - The Governor, Bailey, may cast a decisive vote in November or December, indicating a cautious approach to future rate cuts [2] Group 2: Policy Guidance - The MPC is likely to maintain a wait-and-see approach due to anticipated large tax increases in the autumn budget and upcoming inflation and employment data releases [4] - The Bank may continue to guide investors towards a "gradual and cautious" approach to policy easing, preparing traders for potential rate cuts in December or February [4][7] Group 3: Economic Forecasts - Following an unexpected inflation rate of 3.8% in September, most economists expect the Bank to lower its short-term inflation forecasts [7] - Half of the economists anticipate an upward revision of the Bank's growth forecast for 2025 due to favorable adjustments in last year's data [10] Group 4: Communication Reforms - The Bank of England is set to implement significant reforms in its monetary policy communication, allowing MPC members to explain their decisions individually [12] - The new report will feature clearer narratives integrating core forecasts, economic outlooks, and policy decision elements into a comprehensive overview [12]