投资的信心：如何从混乱走向清晰

Group 1 - The article discusses the inherent biases and challenges investors face when making decisions, particularly the tendency to invest at market peaks due to overconfidence [2][3] - It emphasizes that understanding the nature of confidence and its impact on behavior can lead to better investment choices [2][4] - The article highlights that many investors overlook qualitative factors like feelings, focusing instead on quantitative data such as earnings and sales, which they believe to be more reliable [3][4] Group 2 - It points out that the future is fundamentally unknown and that predictions are often mere projections based on subjective feelings rather than objective certainty [4][5] - The article warns that risk management often fails because organizations plan only for imagined risks, neglecting those that contradict their current confidence levels [5][6] - It suggests that understanding the connections between feelings, narratives, desires, and behaviors can enhance decision-making in investments and other areas of life [5][6]