Ultima Markets:金价预测：黄金/美元将在4000美元附近继续盘整

Core Insights - Gold prices are struggling to maintain upward momentum, remaining below $4000 despite previous rebounds [1][2] - The market is currently in a consolidation phase, lacking clear directional bias [2][3] Market Analysis - Gold has experienced an 11% pullback from its historical high of $4382 reached on October 20, remaining in a consolidation mode for the eighth consecutive trading day [3] - Strong U.S. private sector employment data and earnings reports have countered the dollar's retreat due to the unprecedented government shutdown [3] - The ADP report indicated an increase of 42,000 jobs in October, surpassing the expected 25,000, while the ISM services PMI unexpectedly rose to 52.4 [3] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut next month are approximately 62%, down from 69% prior to the data release [3] Technical Analysis - The short-term outlook for gold appears neutral to slightly bearish, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering around the midpoint [6] - Gold is currently near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from its parabolic rise since August 19 [6] - Buyers need a daily close above $4000 to target the 21-day simple moving average (SMA) at $4,079, while strong selling pressure is expected around the psychological level of $4000 [6] - Support levels are identified at $3930, with further support at the October 28 low of $3887 and a demand zone between $3865-$3850 [6]