2025 Bull Market Persists, but Cracks Appear

Market Overview - The 2025 bull market is ongoing, but signs of potential pullbacks are emerging due to various underlying issues [1][2] - The US government is currently facing its longest shutdown in history, contributing to market uncertainty [1] Market Breadth and Performance - The market has shown resilience, primarily driven by mega-cap stocks like Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Alphabet, and Apple, which have benefited from AI hype [3] - A significant bifurcation is noted, with the S&P 500 Index recording the highest percentage of stocks at 52-week lows, indicating deteriorating market breadth [3][5] Hindenburg Omen - The S&P 500 Index has triggered a "Hindenburg Omen," a signal indicating potential market pullbacks or crashes due to extreme market fragmentation [7][8] - Historical data shows that after the last 30 triggers of the Hindenburg Omen, the market was higher two months later only 17% of the time [8] Fibonacci Extension - The S&P 500 Index has reached the 261.8% Fibonacci extension from the 2022 bear market, suggesting a potential pause or reversal in the market [10]