Ultima Markets:美联储内部分歧加剧，鲍威尔共识领导力遇考

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy, highlighting the challenges faced by Chairman Powell in achieving consensus amid economic uncertainty and differing opinions on interest rate decisions [3][6]. Group 1: Internal Divisions - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy committee, consisting of 19 members, is experiencing deepening divisions, with a notable split in votes during the recent interest rate decision [3][4]. - The recent decision to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points was met with a 10-2 vote, marking the third occurrence of dual dissent among voting members since 1990 [3]. - Dissenting votes came from Governor Milan, who favored a 50 basis point cut, and Kansas City Fed President George, who preferred to maintain the current rate [3]. Group 2: Powell's Leadership Challenges - Chairman Powell's ability to build consensus is under significant scrutiny, especially as he faces strong disagreements among officials on future actions [3][6]. - The upcoming December meeting may not guarantee another rate cut, as the committee could opt to either lower rates by 25 basis points or keep them unchanged [3][6]. - Powell's leadership has been effective in the past, but the current environment presents a more challenging landscape for achieving agreement among committee members [7]. Group 3: Economic Context and Market Implications - Investors are navigating a complex economic backdrop characterized by government shutdowns leading to data shortages, a weakening labor market, and persistent inflation [3][4]. - The political landscape is also affecting the Fed's independence, with the Trump administration criticizing the Fed and preparing to nominate a successor for Powell [3]. - Economists predict that the Fed may continue to lower rates, but the process could become "chaotic and disorderly," leading to a more unpredictable investment environment [8].